Not an official government alert — decision-support only.

Forecasts SR-2

Antananarivo Avaradrano GDACS reported position ECMWF-ENS ensemble mean track
GDACS ECMWF-ENS
Grand Sud
No forecast products configured for this hazard yet.
FORECAST Observed indicators →

Ikopa basin spans 7 districts across 2 regions. View as districts →

GloFAS EXT
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Not available — only one connected source (GloFAS). A second (forecast river discharge + exceedance probability) is planned but not yet connected.

Product
Observed context
Lead day
Beyond the practical operational horizon ⓘ
Range medium-range (3–10 d), capped at +3 d ⓘ
Source  GloFAS flood forecast · external feed · hourly
Base     2026-07-24 06:00 UTC
Valid    2026-07-25 06:00 UTC · +1 day
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Forecast
Observed indicators

ECMWF-ENS: at least twice daily · GDACS: continuous

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On the map: crossfade between GDACS and ECMWF-ENS. As a table: every storm, both sources side by side, with agreement noted.

GDACS ECMWF-ENS

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Source  GDACS + ECMWF-ENS · external feeds
Base     2026-07-24 12:00 UTC
Valid    Projected landfall window 2026-07-23 to 2026-07-24
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Forecast

Monthly cadence.

ECMWF seasonal EXT
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Not available — only one connected source (ECMWF seasonal). No second source is registered.

Product
Observed context
Outlook step
Range long-range (30 d – 2 yr) ⓘ
Source  ECMWF seasonal, via Copernicus CDS · external feed · monthly
Base     2026-07 run
Valid    Current month
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Forecast
Observed indicators

No forecast products configured for this hazard yet. Heavy rainfall is registered as a threshold-only hazard reference (Admin → Thresholds) with no connected forecast source — shown as an explicit gap, not hidden or fabricated.

Adds a pinned snapshot, not a live link.
⚠ Forecast grid covers 62% of Marovoay district — value shown is from the covered part only.
⚠ ECMWF-ENS run delayed (last refresh 6h ago). Map shows last successful refresh.
Forecast · GloFAS · valid 2026-07-25 06:00 UTC · +1 day
Forecast · GDACS + ECMWF-ENS · base 2026-07-24 12:00 UTC
Forecast · ECMWF seasonal · 2026-07 run · current month
Flood forecast — Antananarivo Avaradrano · +1 to +3 days Severe at +3d
Lead dayForecast river levelSeveritySourceConfidence
+1 day5.4mWarningEXT GloFASModerate
+2 days5.8mWarningEXT GloFASModerate
+3 days6.1mSevereEXT GloFASModerate
+4 daysBeyond the practical operational horizon
+5 daysBeyond the practical operational horizon

Observed (last 24h): River gauge, Ikopa — 4.6m

Cyclone forecast — source comparison (GDACS vs ECMWF-ENS) Severe · Rivo
StormMax sustained windSeverityGDACSECMWF-ENSAgreement
Rivo187 km/hSevereCat 4, reported positionCat 4, ensemble mean trackWithin 15 km of reported position
Bheki119 km/hWatchCat 1, reported positionCat 1, ensemble mean trackWithin 30 km of reported position

Both sources shown, neither suppressed — disagreement beyond tolerance would be called out here rather than hidden.

Drought outlook — Grand Sud · current to +2 months Warning at +2mo
Outlook stepSPI departureSeveritySourceConfidence
Current month−1.1WatchEXT ECMWF seasonalModerate
+1 month−1.4WarningEXT ECMWF seasonalModerate
+2 months−1.6WarningEXT ECMWF seasonalLow

Observed (current dekad): SPI-3, CHIRPS-derived — −1.0