Forecasts
Full multi-day forecast horizon per hazard — the Dashboard's lead-day selector shows one slice of this on the map; this page is the dedicated forecast view (SR-2).
Flood forecast — Ikopa basin
| Lead day | Forecast river level | Severity |
|---|---|---|
| +1 day | 5.4m | Warning |
| +2 days | 5.8m | Warning |
| +3 days | 6.1m | Severe |
| +4 days | Beyond the practical operational horizon (see below) | |
| +5 days | Beyond the practical operational horizon (see below) | |
Operational horizon: +3 days (config-driven per hazard). Forecast accuracy for this basin decreases materially beyond this window.
Cyclone track forecast
| Source | Regional cyclone outlook feed (external API) |
| Cross-check | Internal cyclone-track model (internal calculation) |
| Projected landfall window | 2026-07-23 to 2026-07-24 |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Feeds into
Forecast values shown here are the same ones the Dashboard's lead-day map control uses and that Report Editor's "what's expected" section draws from — a single forecast source, not separately re-entered per screen.
Sources: GloFAS flood forecast (remote analytical DB, hourly) · Regional cyclone
outlook feed (6h cadence) · Internal cyclone-track model. Reference period:
2026-07-21.